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China GDP growth set for Q3 rebound

Senior economist with JPMorgan Chase & Co said China economic growth is expected to accelerate in the third quarter as the effect of policy easing becomes evident from July, allowing the country to remain a powerful engine for the global economic recovery.

Ms Jing Ulrich chairwoman of global markets with JPMorgan in China said "The country's growth this year is likely to contribute 40% of world economic growth. China is playing a significant role in stabilizing the global economic system and helping solve the problems of the indebted Eurozone."

She said "Some data have shown that the economic slowdown in China is being reversed. Car sales last month jumped 23% from a year earlier, the fastest pace this year, showing that the sector is rebounding to support industrial production overall.”

The figure exceeded analysts' estimates and indicated that monetary policy had taken effect.

A report from JPMorgan said "Policymakers appear willing to accept a structural downshift in growth and will likely direct further stimulus measures toward strategic industries and basic infrastructure in underdeveloped areas."

The bank lowered China full year GDP growth forecast to 7.7% from the previous 8.0%, the second downgrade in a month, given grim external conditions and increasing risks in Europe.

Mr Qu Hongbin chief economist in China with HSBC Holdings Plc said "The momentum of policy loosening needs to be further strengthened if China's ongoing growth slowdown is to be reversed."

He said that "Aside from last week policy rate cut which helped reduce the lending cost for households and businesses, Beijing policymakers need to continue relying more on quantitative easing tools to ensure sufficient liquidity growth."

The report from JPMorgan forecast as many as two addition cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratio by year end, and a second interest rate cut of 25 basis points in the third quarter.

It said the start of a new cycle of public spending and consumer stimulus will also help boost loan demand.

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